Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction 5 May 2024

With three rounds to go until the end of the season in the English Premier League, Brighton has fallen into the bottom half of the league table and is not contending for anything serious. Aston Villa continues to fight for the top four and is now seven points clear of Tottenham. However, there is no clear favorite at the "Amex", as evidenced by the slight edge towards the Birmingham side - 2.48 against 2.77.

Losses

Brighton has been dealing with a large number of injuries all season long. At least eight players are currently unavailable. Among them, Mitoma and Ferguson are key attacking players. Van Hecke is also injured, and it's hard to imagine Brighton's defense without him.

Aston Villa has its share of injured players as well. Kamara, Mings, and Ramsey have been long absent, and Tielemans was injured in the last round.

Head-to-head encounters

Aston Villa has a significant advantage in head-to-head encounters. It's enough to say that out of 14 matches, Brighton has only one win. In the first round, they suffered a thrashing, conceding six goals. The team hasn't won at home in 6 consecutive head-to-head matches. Betting on Aston Villa not to lose is available at odds of 1.51. Excluding the last head-to-head encounter, the rivalry is not very high-scoring. The total of fewer than 3.5 goals has occurred in 8 out of the last 9 head-to-head Premier League matches. The bet Total goals under (3.5) is valued at odds of 1.74.

Trends

• The total of fewer than 3.5 goals has occurred in 7 out of Brighton's last 8 matches.
• The total of more than 2.5 goals has occurred in 7 out of Aston Villa's last 8 matches.
• Aston Villa scores and concedes in 7 out of their last 8 matches.

Referee and fouls

Robert Jones will officiate the match. In his last 10 matches, he has averaged 21.1 fouls but shown 4.1 yellow cards. However, over the season, the referee tends to call more fouls - 23.09, resulting in more warnings - 4.38.

Brighton plays a style that doesn't involve many fouls. On average, they commit 9.6 fouls, receiving 2 yellow cards.

Aston Villa commits fouls more frequently, but within the norm - 11.1. It's no surprise that the team also receives more warnings - 2.3.

Neither team can be considered rough, and the referee's yellow card rate isn't excessive. Meanwhile, the total of fewer than 4.5 yellow cards has occurred in 5 consecutive Brighton matches. In this situation, it makes sense to consider Yellow cards - Total under (4.5) at 2.05.

Corners

• Brighton takes fewer than 5.5 corners in 6 out of their last 7 matches.
• Aston Villa takes more than 5.5 corners in 6 out of their last 7 matches.

Moreover, the visitors average more corners over the season - 6.3 against 5.8. Therefore, Corners - Aston Villa not to lose at 1.77 looks quite promising.

Team reviews

Brighton hasn't won in six consecutive matches. Previously, they pleased with their gameplay and scored goals. Now, they are having problems with both. The team scores less than 1.5 goals in 12 consecutive matches. Betting on Brighton Total under (1.5) is valued at odds of 1.82.

Aston Villa has been unstable lately, but it continues to be in the top-4 of the English Premier League. Additionally, the team competes in the Conference League, where it is considered a favorite. However, they unexpectedly lost to Olympiacos recently, although they scored twice. The Birmingham side scores more than 1.5 goals in 6 out of their last 7 matches. Betting on Aston Villa Total goals Over (1.5) is available at odds of 1.87.

Editorial prediction 

Brighton is currently not as bright in attack as before. At least scoring goals has become difficult for them. Aston Villa should also focus on defense after their failure in the Conference League. Moreover, the total of fewer than 3.5 goals has occurred in 8 out of Brighton's last 9 Premier League matches, as well as in 8 out of the last 9 head-to-head matches. Therefore, we will opt for Total goals under (3.5) at 1.74.

*Below on the page, you will find detailed statistics of the teams playing and trends for many other markets

📊To understand the possible outcomes of the match, let's turn to the history of head-to-head meetings. Officially, the clubs have played in 13 match, where today's home team won 1, and the guests have accumulated 8 victories.

⚽The numbers for goals scored are as follows:

• For the Brighton & Hove Albion team – 12;
• For the Aston Villa club – 26.

🏁Regarding the last match, it took place on 30 September 2023 at the Aston Villa team's field and ended with a score of 6:1.