Real Madrid vs Bayern Prediction 8 May 2024

Real Madrid managed to secure a draw in Munich (2-2), which they must be incredibly pleased with, given how the match unfolded. However, the game on May 8th at "Santiago Bernabeu" will be a completely different affair, and the "Los Blancos" are the clear favorites. Bayern Munich making it to the Champions League final, during one of their worst seasons in years, would be a sensation.

Losses

Real's infirmary is almost empty. Only Alaba remains, recovering from a cruciate ligament tear. He is an important defender, but the team has learned to cope without him for such a long time.

Bayern will miss Marusic, Sarr, and Bouna – reserves who have been injured for a long time. More significant losses are Coman and Guerreiro. The Frenchman was sidelined in mid-April, while the Portuguese got injured over the weekend in a game against Stuttgart.

Head-to-Head

Last week, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich traditionally put on a high-scoring spectacle for the fans. They have hit the over 2.5 goals in 10 out of their last 11 matches.

It's also worth noting, unfortunately for Munich fans, their team once again failed to beat "Los Blancos", even though they were close. Real Madrid has not lost to Bayern in 8 consecutive Champions League matches – an impressive streak.

Referee and Fouls

The match will be overseen by a team of referees led by Szymon Marciniak. The Pole is a principled referee who does not tolerate rough play on the field. In this season's Champions League, he has officiated 5 matches, in 4 of which he showed more than 4 yellow cards. The average stats are 5.2 yellow cards and 26 fouls.

Real Madrid does not shy away from committing fouls when the situation demands it, but still, the technical Madrid stars often force opponents to commit fouls (10 fouls against 10.7 respectively). Interestingly, the situation is reversed when it comes to yellow cards. Ancelotti's protégés often break up promising counterattacks, hence they lead in average yellow cards – 1.8 to 1.7.

Bayern Munich has shown unconvincing play this season – we do not see their usual dominance. Therefore, in terms of average fouls, the Munich team even surpasses its opponents (10.3 to 10.1). However, they are less prone to roughness, as indicated by the yellow card statistics – 1.3 for the German team compared to 1.8 for their opponents.

Given the referee's strictness and the importance of the match, we have no doubt that there will be more than enough warnings. A bet on over (3.5) yellow cards is a good option.

Team Overviews

Over the weekend, Real Madrid officially became La Liga champions and can now focus on Bayern Munich with peace of mind. Even in Munich, "Los Blancos" were sharp, generating 1.9 expected goals. What can we expect from them at home? Here Ancelotti's boys have scored over 1.5 goals in 5 consecutive matches, making a bet on this option completely justified.

Bayern Munich, on the other hand, fairly lost to Stuttgart in their recent Bundesliga match, so even second place is not guaranteed for them yet. This gives Tuchel's team even more motivation for the Champions League. Even away from home, they will create chances, and the Madrid goalkeeper will certainly not be bored. The Munich team has delivered over 4.5 corners in their last 5 matches against Real Madrid in Europe's premier club competition, so a bet on five corners by the visitors is a good choice.

Editorial Prediction

The Kane curse has moved to Germany with him, but Harry is eager to break it. Tuchel's team, having no domestic titles left to win, has nothing to lose. However, even insane motivation and dedication are unlikely to help Munich, as Real Madrid has become their kryptonite over the last decade. Bayern has lost 5 out of their last 6 matches at the "Bernabeu", and in our opinion, they are headed for another debacle. "Los Blancos" are too strong at home.

*detailed statistics of the teams playing and trends for many other markets await you further down the page