Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 1 May 2024

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Match Preview

On May 1st, Borussia Dortmund will host PSG in the first semi-final match of the UEFA Champions League. The teams played in the same group, and few expected them to go this far. This is especially true for the "Bumblebees," who have reached the semi-finals for the first time since the legendary 2012/13 season. Even in the match at their home "Signal Iduna Park," the German club is considered the underdog. Will they be able to surprise the Parisian stars?

Losses

Borussia Dortmund has lost three players due to injuries – these are Bensebaini, Aller, and Malen. All have been injured for quite some time, but only the last two can be considered truly significant losses. Without these guys, the "Bumblebees'" attack has weakened. Also, Hummels' participation in the match is in question – he is the most experienced defender, who played in the 2013 UCL final.

For PSG, only defender Kimpembe and goalkeeper Rico will be absent. Both have not appeared on the field for a very long time and are not considered key elements of Luis Enrique's team.

Head-to-Head

Apart from competing in the group stage of the current tournament, the teams met in the round of 16 in 2020, as well as in the Europa League group in 2010. Surprisingly, only in 1 out of 6 matches did the total goals exceed 2.5. Yet, the odds for a "low" score in the upcoming game are quite high at 2.7!

As for outcomes, PSG leads slightly – two wins to Dortmund's one. Three games ended in a draw. Betting on a draw offers odds of 3.94.

Referee and Fouls

The match will be officiated by a team of referees led by Anthony Taylor. Interestingly, the Englishman was also in charge of PSG's home game against Barca, which Enrique's protégés lost, and he issued as many as 6 yellow cards. In his home league, he is one of the season leaders in average number of cautions (5.0), and in the current UCL tournament, he has issued more than 3 "yellows" in 3 out of 5 matches. The average number of fouls per game under his officiation is 22.

Despite being considered underdogs in many of this season's UCL matches, Dortmund hasn't fouled too often – just 10.5 times per game. Their yellow card count is also quite modest – 1.6 cautions per game.

PSG plays significantly rougher. Both in the group stage and in the playoffs, Parisians actively challenge their opponents' legs, averaging 12 fouls per match. Referees do not spare them, issuing 2.7 yellow cards on average.

Taking into account the intensity of the match and Taylor's principles, we suggest betting on total yellow cards over (3.5) at 1.46.

Team Reviews

Borussia Dortmund sensationally made it to the UCL semi-finals, overcoming Atletico after losing the first leg. The "Bumblebees" perform powerfully at home, putting pressure even on top-level opponents. With Sahin joining the coaching staff, the team has improved in positional attacks and consistently earns corners. They have delivered more than 4.5 corners at home in 8 out of their last 9 matches. Betting on this is offered at 1.65.

PSG celebrated their routine championship win over the weekend and are now focused on winning the long-awaited UCL trophy. Towards the end of the season, Luis Enrique has brought the team to optimal conditions, imbuing it with his ideas. The Parisians creatively attack, consistently finding gaps in opponents' defensive setups. They have scored more than 1.5 goals in five consecutive matches and in 10 out of their last 11 away games. Betting that the visitors will score at least twice looks promising at 1.83.

Editorial Prediction

For Borussia Dortmund, success in the home match is very important. Winning in Paris will be difficult, so at home, Dortmund should not just sit back in defense. However, it's clear that playing in space is PSG's element, particularly for Kylian Mbappe. This is how Enrique's team dismantled Real Sociedad, and it's worth noting that they also create great opportunities in positional attacks, as shown in their confrontations with Barcelona. Therefore, we bet on total goals by the visitors over (1.5) at 1.83.

*detailed statistics of the teams playing and trends for many other markets await you further down the page

Personal meetings of the opponents

📊To understand the possible outcomes of the match, let's turn to the history of head-to-head meetings. Officially, the clubs have played in 4 match, where today's home team won 1, and the guests have accumulated 2 victories.

⚽The numbers for goals scored are as follows:

For the Borussia Dortmund team – 3;
For the Paris Saint-Germain club – 6.

🏁Regarding the last match, it took place on 13 December 2023 at the Borussia Dortmund team's field and ended with a score of 1:1.

Borussia Dortmund Review

⚠️In such matches, it's common to see rotation players, and this encounter will be no exception. Thus, the football played by team Borussia Dortmund may differ from the usual.

📊However, to understand the overall picture, let's evaluate the performance over the last ten matches. During this period, today's home team delighted their fans with 6 victories, settled for a draw in 1 matches, and lost 3 times.

⚽Regarding goals over a similar stretch of 10 matches, the average number of goals scored stands at 1.8, the average number of goals in the last 10 home performances is 2, and the average number of goals conceded is 1.3.

Paris Saint-Germain Review

🏆In the context of the upcoming game, we will see a decent lineup from the visitors. Overall, the tournament goals are serious, but whether they can be achieved remains an open question.

📊For now, let's look at the team's statistics based on the last 10 matches in the calendar. During this time, the team Paris Saint-Germain gifted its fans with 7 victories, played to a draw 2 times, and finished 1 games with a defeat.

⚽Overall, the indicators speak for themselves, but let's also assess the effectiveness during this time. The figures are as follows:

total number of goals – 30;
average goals scored – 3;
average goals conceded – 1.3.

✅The pre-match layout is quite interesting, with the odds being for the home team's victory and for the away team's win, which are quite attractive. We are confident that both teams, Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain, will put up a serious fight, so after conducting additional analysis, we see the greatest potential in the bet 'Paris Saint-Germain Total goals Over(1.5)', considering the circumstances of the match - it's a safe and profitable bet.